Right-wing populists hopeful after first round of Polish presidential election

There is a long way to go yet in Poland’s presidential election – but Sunday’s first round was a good day for candidates on the political right and far right, and served as a warning for the moderate government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Mr Tusk’s candidate, liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, and a conservative opponent backed by the national conservative Law and Justice party, Karol Nawrocki, emerged ahead in a pack of 13 candidates.

The results were extremely close – Mr Trzaskowski with 31.36% of the votes and Mr Nawrocki polling at 29.54%, according to the final results released on Monday morning.

Poles now head to a nail-biting second round on June 1, with much resting on the outcome of the run-off.

The race is not only for the presidency, an office with the power to influence foreign policy and veto laws.

It will also seal the fate of Mr Tusk’s efforts to repair the country’s relationship with European allies after after years of rule by Law and Justice, which was often in conflict with Brussels.

Mr Tusk has been trying to reverse changes to the judicial branch that were considered undemocratic by the EU, but his efforts have been largely blocked by outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda.

Many centrist and progressive voters are also disappointed that Mr Tusk has not delivered on other promises, like liberalising the restrictive abortion law.

He has also been criticised for the heavy-handed way he took over control of public media from Law and Justice, and the continued politicization of taxpayer funded public media.

Mr Trzaskowski and Mr Nawrocki wasted no time at all as they head toward the finish line. They got out on the streets early on Monday to meet with voters.

Mr Trzaskowski handed out sweet yeast buns on the streets of Kielce, and Mr Nawrocki distributed donuts and posed for selfies with supporters in Gdansk. Mr Trzaskowski, who ran and barely lost to incumbent President Andrzej Duda in 2020, was long considered the frontrunner this year. After Sunday’s vote he can no longer be sure of the outcome.

Mr Nawrocki declared himself “full of energy and enthusiasm on the way to victory” in a statement to the media, adding that “probably all of Poland saw that Rafal Trzaskowski is a candidate who can’t cope”.

Meanwhile, Mr Trzaskowski vowed to fight until the end, saying at a press briefing: “I will try to convince young people and all those who voted differently that it is worth voting for a normal Poland, not a radical Poland.”