Mayor and historian are front runners in Poland’s presidential election

Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki seem set to go head-to-head in the second round of the vote in June.

An old woman casting her vote into a large transparent ballot box — An old woman casts her vote in the presidential election at a polling station in Warsaw (Czarek Sokolowski/AP)

Liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and a conservative historian, Karol Nawrocki, are the front-runners in a presidential election in Poland on Sunday, an exit poll shows.

They will face off in a second round in two weeks.

The poll by the Ipsos institute shows Mr Trzaskowski with an estimated 30.8% and Mr Nawrocki 29.1%

A far-right candidate, Slawomir Mentzen, is projected by the exit poll to garner 15.4%.

Poland Presidential Election — Rafal Trzaskowski and his wife, Malgorzata Trzaskowska, cast their ballots at a polling station in Warsaw (Czarek Sokolowski/AP)

There are 13 candidates in all. To win, a candidate must reach 50%, and a second round is to be held June 1. Official results are expected on Monday or Tuesday.

The election comes at a time of heightened security concerns stemming from the ongoing war in neighbouring Ukraine and growing worry that the US commitment to Europe’s security could be weakening under President Donald Trump.

Mr Trzaskowski, a liberal allied with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Mr Nawrocki, a conservative historian with no prior political experience who is supported by the national conservative Law and Justice party, have been the front-runners.

Recent opinion polls showed Mr Trzaskowski with about 30% support and Mr Nawrocki in the mid-20s.

The election is also a test of the strength of other forces, including the far right.

Mr Mentzen, a hard-right candidate who blends populist MAGA-style rhetoric with libertarian economics and a critical stance toward the European Union, had been polling in third place.

Polish authorities have reported attempts at foreign interference during the campaign, including denial-of-service attacks targeting parties in Mr Tusk’s coalition on Friday and allegations by a state research institute that political ads on Facebook were funded from abroad.

Although Poland’s prime minister and parliament hold primary authority over domestic policy, the presidency carries substantial power.

The president serves as commander of the armed forces, plays a role in foreign and security policy, and can veto legislation.

The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, has repeatedly used that power over more than the past year to hamper Mr Tusk’s agenda, for example blocking ambassadorial nominations and using his veto power to resist reversing disputed judicial and media changes made during Law and Justice’s time in power from 2015 to late 2023.