Canadians vote in election dominated by Trump’s trade war and bluster

Canadians are voting on whether to extend the Liberal Party’s decade in power by picking new Prime Minister Mark Carney or hand control to the opposition Conservatives and their populist leader Pierre Poilievre.

But the election is also a referendum on US President Donald Trump.

Mr Trump trolled Canadians on election day by suggesting on social media that he was on the ballot and repeating that Canada should become the 51st state, incorrectly claiming the US subsidises Canada.

“It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” Mr Trump wrote.

Mr Poilievre, who has been criticised for not taking a firmer stance against Mr Trump, responded with a post of his own.

“President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box,” he posted. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”

Until Mr Trump won a second term and began threatening Canada’s economy and sovereignty, the Liberals looked like they were heading for defeat.

Mr Trump’s truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel US holidays, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.

Mr Trump’s attacks also put Mr Poilievre and the Conservative Party on the defensive and led to a surge in nationalism that helped the Liberals flip the election narrative.

“The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Mr Carney said recently, laying out what he saw as the election’s stakes. “Those aren’t just words. That’s what’s at risk.”

Election day came as the country grappled with the fallout from a deadly weekend attack at a Vancouver street fair that led to the suspension of campaigning for several hours. Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.

Mr Poilievre and his wife walked hand-in-hand to vote in their suburban district near the nation’s capital, Ottawa. “Get out to vote for a change,” he implored voters.

He had hoped to make the election a referendum on former prime minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined towards the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.

But then Mr Trump became the dominant issue, and Mr Poilievre’s similarities to the bombastic president could cost him.

“He appeals to the same sense of grievance,” Canadian historian Robert Bothwell said of the Conservative leader. “It’s like Trump standing there saying, ‘I am your retribution.’”

“The Liberals ought to pay him,” Mr Bothwell added, referring to the American president. “Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”

Foreign policy has not dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988 when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the prevailing issue.

Canada has been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis for some time. And more than 75% of its exports go to the US, so Mr Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get North American car manufacturers to move Canada’s production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.

Both Mr Carney and Mr Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of a free trade deal between Canada and the US in a bid to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.

Mr Carney has notable experience navigating economic crises after running Canada’s central bank and later becoming the first non-UK citizen to run the Bank of England.

Mr Trump dialled back his talk of Canada becoming the 51st state during the campaign until last week, when he said Canada “would cease to exist as a country” if the US stopped buying its goods. He also said he is not just trolling Canada when he says it should become a state.

In response to the threats to Canadian sovereignty, Mr Carney pleaded with voters to deliver him a strong mandate to deal with Mr Trump.

“President Trump has some obsessive ideas, and that is one,” Mr Carney said of his annexation threat.

“It’s not a joke. It’s his very strong desire to make this happen. It’s one of the reasons why this crisis is so serious.”

Reid Warren, a Toronto resident, said he voted Liberal because Mr Poilievre “sounds like mini-Trump to me”. And he said Mr Trump’s tariffs are a worry.

“Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” he said.