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Why are tensions so high as Iran and US prepare to discuss nuclear issues?

Donald Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign targeting the country.

By contributor Jon Gambrell, Associated Press
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Iran
An Iranian demonstrator holds up an anti-US placard and a poster of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Vahid Salemi/AP)

Iran and the United States will hold talks in the sultanate of Oman on Saturday in an attempt to jump-start negotiations over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme.

Even before the talks, however, there was a dispute over just how the negotiations would go.

President Donald Trump insists they will be direct negotiations, however Iran’s foreign minister said they will be indirect talks through a mediator.

The difference may seem small, but it matters.

Iran
The Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves to the crowd (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP)

Indirect talks have made no progress since Mr Trump in his first term unilaterally withdrew the US from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2018.

Mr Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign targeting the country.

He has again suggested military action against Iran remained a possibility, while emphasising he still believed a new deal could be reached by writing a letter to Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Mr Khamenei has warned Iran would respond to any attack with an attack of its own.

Here is what to know about the letter, Iran’s nuclear programme and the tensions that have stalked relations between Tehran and Washington since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Why did Mr Trump write the letter?

Mr Trump dispatched the letter to Mr Khamenei on March 5, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it.

He said: “I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing’.”

US Israel
President Donald Trump (AP)

Since returning to the White House, the president has been pushing for talks while ratcheting up sanctions and suggesting a military strike by Israel or the US could target Iranian nuclear sites.

A previous letter from Mr Trump during his first term drew an angry retort from the supreme leader.

But Mr Trump’s letters to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in his first term led to face-to-face meetings, though no deals to limit Pyongyang’s atomic bombs and a missile programme capable of reaching the continental US.

How has Iran reacted?

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected direct negotiations with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

“We don’t avoid talks; it’s the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far,” Mr Pezeshkian said in televised remarks during a Cabinet meeting.

“They must prove that they can build trust.”

Mr Khamenei seemingly reacted to comments by Mr Trump renewing his threat of military action.

“They threaten to commit acts of mischief, but we are not entirely certain that such actions will take place,” the supreme leader said.

“We do not consider it highly likely that trouble will come from the outside.

“However, if it does, they will undoubtedly face a strong retaliatory strike.”

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei went further.

“An open threat of ‘bombing’ by a Head of State against Iran is a shocking affront to the very essence of International Peace and Security,” he wrote on the social platform X.

“Violence breeds violence, peace begets peace. The US can choose the course…; and concede to consequences.”

Iran Israel Palesinians
A member of the Iranian Basij paramilitary force attends the annual anti-Israeli Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day rally (Vahid Salemi/AP)

The state-owned Tehran Times newspaper, without citing a source, claimed that Iran had “readied missiles with the capability to strike US-related positions”.

That is as the US has stationed stealth B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia within striking distance of both Iran and Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, which America has been bombing intensely since March 15.

Why does Iran’s nuclear programme worry the West?

Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear programme is peaceful.

However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon.

Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilogrammes (661lb).

The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s programme put its stockpile at 8,294.4 kilogrammes (18,286lb) as it enriches a fraction of it to 60% purity.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons programme, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so”.

Mideast Wars Yemen US
This satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows six B-2 stealth bombers parked at Camp Thunder Cove in Diego Garcia (Planet Labs PBC/AP)

Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has warned in a televised interview that his country has the capability to build nuclear weapons, but it is not pursuing it and has no problem with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections.

However, he said if the US or Israel were to attack Iran over the issue, the country would have no choice but to move toward nuclear weapon development.

“If you make a mistake regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, you will force Iran to take that path, because it must defend itself,” he said.

Why are relations so bad between Iran and the US?

Iran was once one of the US’s top allies in the Mideast under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighbouring Soviet Union.

The CIA had fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule.

The Islamic Revolution followed, led by Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and created Iran’s theocratic government.

Shah of Iran
The then Shah of Iran sits with Queen Elizabeth II in an open carriage in 1959 as they drive with the Duke of Edinburgh to Buckingham Palace from Victoria Station, London (PA)

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed.

The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saw the US back Saddam Hussein.

The “Tanker War” during that conflict saw the US launch a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea, while the US later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner.

Iran and the US have see-sawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, with relations peaking when Tehran made the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

But Mr Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the accord, sparking tensions in the Mideast that persist today.

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