Net migration data due after Starmer’s warning on ‘island of strangers’

New estimates for the level of net migration to the UK – the difference between the number of people settling in the country long term and the number of people leaving – will be published on Thursday.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will give its first estimate of net migration for the 12 months to December 2024, along with updated figures for the years to June 2024 and to December 2023.

The most recent estimates, published by the ONS in November, put net migration for the year to June 2024 at a provisional total of 728,000, down from a record 906,000 in the previous 12 months.

A further drop is likely to be seen in the new estimate for the year to December, following the introduction in early 2024 by the previous Conservative government of restrictions on people eligible to travel to the UK on work or study visas.

The latest figures will come less than a fortnight after Sir Keir Starmer said high net migration had caused “incalculable” damage to British society, as he set out a series of measures aimed at reducing further the number of people moving long term to the UK.

The Prime Minister, who said the country risks becoming an “island of strangers” without better integration, said he wanted net migration to have fallen “significantly” by the next general election – but refused to set a target number.

Sir Keir’s plan includes reforming work and study visas and requiring a higher level of English across all immigration routes, and is expected to reduce the number of people coming to the UK by up to 100,000 per year.

Sir Keir’s reference to strangers faced criticism – including from Labour backbenchers – as it was said by some to have echoes of Enoch Powell’s infamous “rivers of blood” speech.

But Home Secretary Yvette Cooper defended the Prime Minister, insisting the tone of his plan was “completely different” from the 1968 anti-immigration speech.

The Prime Minister’s spokesman later confirmed Sir Keir stood by the words he used and rejected “absolutely” the Powell comparisons.

Results of a poll published earlier this week suggested Britons feel disconnected from society, wary of other people and worried about community tensions.

The More In Common survey of more than 13,000 British adults found half said they felt disconnected from society, while 44% said they sometimes felt like a “stranger” in their own country.

But the poll suggested that the reasons for disconnection went beyond immigration and culture, with economic insecurity closely related to feelings of alienation.

For many years, the level of immigration – people coming to the UK – has been higher than the level of emigration – people leaving – meaning more people are coming to settle in the UK than are leaving to settle in another country.

The Government’s promise to “take back control of our borders” comes as Labour battles a surge in support for Reform UK, which won a by-election and council seats across England earlier this month, with policies including a “freeze” on immigration.