Labour has ‘largely lost’ its gains in Scotland, says polling expert

Gains Labour made last year when Sir Keir Starmer won a landslide Westminster election have “largely been lost”, a polling expert has said.

Mark Diffley, founder of the research agency Diffley Partnership, was speaking as a new poll showed the SNP comfortably ahead of Scottish Labour in the run up to next May’s Holyrood election.

The Survation survey, carried out on behalf of Diffley Partnership, found 36% of people are planning to vote for John Swinney’s party on the constituency section of the ballot, with 28% saying they will support the SNP on the regional list section of the vote.

Support for Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour is at 22% on both the constituency and the regional list ballot, the poll found.

A total of 1,005 Scots were asked about how they intend to vote, with the polling taking place between April 16 and 22.

Mr Diffley told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme that “the SNP has revived somewhat since its drubbing at the general election last year” – when it saw its seat tally at Westminster fall to just nine.

Labour won that election in Scotland and across the UK, but Mr Diffley said the party is now “making no progress whatsoever and is polling pretty much where it was in the Holyrood election in 2021″.

He added: “The gains Labour made last year have now largely been lost.”

According to the poll, support for the Scottish Conservatives is at 13% on the constituency vote and 16% on the regional list, while Reform UK is put at 14% and 12%.

Analysis by Diffley Partnership for The Herald newspaper found these results would give the SNP 57 seats at Holyrood – still the largest party but down from the 64 it won in 2021 when Nicola Sturgeon was still leader.

Labour would see its number of MSPs increase by three to 25, according to the analysis, while the Conservatives would fall from 31 to 17.

Reform UK is projected to have 12 MSPs, which would be the first time it has won seats at Holyrood.

The Greens and Liberal Democrats could also see their number of MSPs rise, to 10 and eight respectively, the research suggests.

The poll comes as Nigel Farage’s party made gains in local elections south of the border, winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election from Labour, while former Tory minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was elected for Reform as the first Greater Lincolnshire mayor with a majority of almost 40,000 over her old party.

Mr Diffley said: “The story last night in England was the rise of Reform, and both the polling and what we’re seeing in things like local council by-elections in Scotland is Reform, maybe not to the same extent, but at least somewhat on the march in Scotland as well, polling 14% in the constituency vote intention and 12% in the regional list vote intention.”

He added that in next month’s Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood by-election, “one of the big stories will be how well Reform do”.

The elections expert said: “We don’t expect they’ll win, but they will eat into both the Conservative and Labour vote, I am pretty sure of that.”

SNP MSP George Adam said the Survation poll “shows clearly that the people of Scotland are putting their trust in the SNP to deliver in Government and offer hope for a better future”.

He added: “People across Scotland are disappointed by Labour’s broken promises, and Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has thus far been a litany of failures that have pulled vital support from Scotland’s pensioners, presided over soaring household bills, and given billions to industrial projects in England – while treating Scotland as an after-thought.

“Under John Swinney’s leadership, the Scottish Parliament is delivering on the issues that matter most to people in Scotland – improving the NHS, taking tangible action on the cost of living, and investing in our public services.

“While these polls are encouraging, the SNP takes no vote for granted and will continue to listen to the public, deliver for them in Government and work towards a brighter future for Scotland.”