Prisons face ‘total gridlock’ in 2026 amid failure to increase capacity – MPs

Prisons are forecast to run out of space again in early 2026 as years of government efforts have failed to create the extra capacity needed, MPs have warned.

Plans from 2021 to create 20,000 more prison places by the mid 2020s were “completely unrealistic” and thousands of outstanding spaces are expected to be delivered five years late for £4.2 billion – 80% – more than planned.

The Public Accounts Committee report published on Friday found a “system in crisis” that faces “total gridlock” next year despite thousands of prisoners being released early to tackle overcrowding.

MPs also said the HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) remains operating “hand to mouth”, reacting to immediate crises like it found in 2020, and that the service acknowledges it as “detrimental” for rehabilitation efforts to cut reoffending.

Chairman of the committee Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown said: “Lives are being put at increasing risk by the Government’s historic failures to increase capacity.

“Despite the recent emergency release of thousands of prisoners, the system still faces total gridlock in a matter of months.”

He added that the inquiry found severely overcrowded prisons are in danger of becoming “pressure cookers” and that vital rehabilitative work is being sidelined as staff are forced to focus on controlling unsafe environments.

“Many prisoners themselves are living in simply inhumane conditions, with their health needs often overlooked.

“It is now for the Government to act on the recommendations in our report if disaster is to be averted,” Sir Geoffrey said.

The report detailed that the adult male prison estate was at between 98% and 99.7% occupancy between October 2022 and August 2024, and remains “alarmingly full”.

It found a quarter of prisoners are doubled up in cells meant for one person and that overcrowding is linked to higher rates of violence and self-harm which “increased significantly” in the year to September 2024.

The committee said fights between prisoners were up 14% and attacks on staff jumped by 19% in that period.

Overcrowding creates barriers to prisoners accessing education and makes it difficult for the prison service to tackle high levels of drug use in prison, MPs added.

The committee also warned HMPPS was “entirely reliant” on “uncertain” future measures to prevent it running out of places which it hopes will come from the independent sentencing review expected to be published in the spring.

The MPs made similar findings of the approach taken in tackling the courts backlog earlier this month, of the Ministry of Justice being “over-reliant” on the upcoming findings from the Leveson Review also expected in late spring.

Sir Geoffrey added: “As with our recent inquiry into court backlogs, we find a department grappling with the fallout of problems it should have predicted while awaiting the judgment of an external review before taking any truly radical corrective action.”

The report said among the reasons for the shortfall of creating more prison places was that the Ministry of Justice and HMPPS assumed they could gain planning permission for new prisons in 26 weeks.

They also relied on the Treasury and Cabinet Office to deliver some projects quickly but did not receive the support they needed.

Maintenance funding of £520 million was also highlighted as a small proportion of the £2.8 billion estimated to be needed to bring the prison estate into fair condition.

Plans to deliver the remaining 14,000 places by 2031 are “still fraught with risk and uncertainty”, the committee warned.

The MPs set out recommendations including for the Ministry of Justice and HMPPS to assure Parliament their plans are now realistic and how they will manage risks, particularly in relation to planning permission.

They also called for the bodies to set out plans to assess the impact of prison capacity pressures on self-harm and violence and access to education, drug rehabilitation and work opportunities.

Reacting to the report, charity Howard League for Penal Reform chief executive, Andrea Coomber KC, said: “It is no coincidence that violence and self-harm are at endemic levels.

“The Government has acknowledged that it cannot build our way out of this crisis. Ultimately, they must reduce demand on a system that has been asked to do too much, with too little, for too long.”

She added that billions of pounds earmarked for building new prisons would be better spent on securing an “effective and responsive” probation service, working to cut crime in the community.

Jon Collins, chief executive of charity Prisoners’ Education Trust, also called for more investment in education, which was too often a “casualty” of the prisons crisis, but “central” to effective rehabilitation.

Prisons and probation minister Lord Timpson said: “This report exposes the catalogue of failures we inherited which almost collapsed our entire prison system. This not only risked public safety but added billions in extra costs to taxpayers.

“We have already taken immediate action to end the overcrowding chaos engulfing our jails and are now delivering on our plan for change to ensure prisons work, cut crime and make streets safer.

“This includes delivering 14,000 new, modern prison places by 2031 and reviewing sentencing so we never run out of space again. We’ll carefully consider the Committee’s recommendations as part of this work.”