Polls expert questions Reform UK’s prospects in May local elections

Reform UK should secure as many seats in May’s local elections as Labour and the Tories based on polling figures, but recent council election results suggest Nigel Farage’s party may fall short of expectations, according to a polling expert.

Lord Hayward said all three parties should have a realistic target of about 450 councillors after the local elections on May 1, which would each represent about a quarter of the 1,641 council seats available.

The Conservatives currently have 973 seats, Labour 301 and Reform UK just nine of the seats available.

The Tory peer downplayed the electoral impact of the current friction within Reform, which has led to Rupert Lowe having the party whip suspended and the MP being reported to the police amid claims of threatening violence against the party chairman.

Lord Hayward said: “I don’t think at this stage it is going to make that much difference. If it drags on, it will have an impact, but only if Nigel Farage is particularly affected by the argument.”

However, analysis of council by-election results since the general election in July suggests Reform’s standing with voters could be out of sync with some recent national polls which have shown the party ahead, Lord Hayward said.

Since the general election, Lord Hayward found the Conservatives have gained 23 council seats while Labour has lost 35.

The Liberal Democrats have gained two seats over the period and Reform has gained 12 – about half as many as the Tories.

But since the start of 2025, Lord Hayward identified that Reform fought 27 council seat by-elections, gaining only four seats in total – two each from the Conservatives and Labour.

He said: “Reform could quite easily reasonably argue that they have only got themselves organised in the last few months, but there is no question that that argument only holds water up to a certain point.”

Referring to two recent by-elections in rural Essex which Reform did not win, Lord Hayward said: “There are examples where you might have expected them to have done well or better.

“They are polling persistently good numbers but if they were in the lead they maintain they are, they should be able to convert that into more places than they are at the moment.”

Lord Hayward said the big number of council seats secured by Nigel Farage’s former party Ukip in 2013 council elections provides a marker for Reform in 2025.

“There is a direct parallel with the result in 2013 and they should be doing really well in 2025 if they are actually improving on their previous base,” he said.

Lord Hayward added: “If (Reform) are in the position that the polls indicate that they are, then they should be doing better than they actually are.”

The Tory peer also questioned suggestions that Reform is on course to win the mayoral election in Lincolnshire, a strongly pro-Brexit area in the referendum, which also takes place on May 1.

He said the Conservatives secured 129,000 votes across the county area during the general election, compared to 94,000 for Reform. Labour came second in the contested seats and were “much closer to the Conservatives than they were to Reform”.

Identifying potential challenges for other parties, Lord Hayward said the Conservatives are going to face a “massive problem” as the party secured a huge 66% of council seats in 2021 – a year he labelled “peak Boris” due to the popularity of then Conservative leader Boris Johnson.

Lord Hayward said: “That 66% of councillors elected in 2021 was a staggeringly high number and it is going to impact in terms of (media) coverage on the election results.

“The Conservatives are facing a massive problem. They are not going to hold 66% of councillors. They would be doing well if held 35% to 40% of the seats that are up. There is no question about that.”

He said the party is still likely to be viewed negatively by the public as “brands take a long time to turn around” and warned a shortage of party activists in some areas could be a problem.

“In a number of seats where the Tory Party lost at the general election, they are now very short of party workers. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there is a direct correlation (with the local election results),” he added.

On Labour, Lord Hayward said council by-election voters initially turned their back on the party following the election, but there are now signs of recovery.

He said: “Labour’s loss of votes in local council elections was accelerating as the months had gone by through to December.

“They are still losing vote share in most by-elections, but not by the unbelievably striking margins that they were before Christmas.

“It may be that the question of farmers and winter fuel payments, and those sorts of things, have begun to wear off. But if that is the case, then there is a possibility that the financial statement on March 26 is going to resurrect some of those issues.”

Lord Hayward also said elections in Lancashire could provide a gauge of how Muslims now view the party following controversy over its stance on Gaza and Israel.

He also said Labour could face problems in areas such as Oxford, Cambridge and Bristol over the decision to cut aid to boost defence spending.

Lord Hayward added: “It is going to be in those academic centres where you have got concentrations of people who are very what I would describe as ‘aid orientated’ who are likely to have an impact on the results.

“You have got very strong academic-centred (voters) who I reckon may well transfer to Greens or the Liberal Democrats in many of these locations out of frustration.”