Express & Star

West Brom comment: How many points are needed this season?

It’s often said 40 points is the crucial tally needed for survival.

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But is that really what Albion require if they are to achieve their aim of staying in the Premier League?

The good news, it appears, is that they don’t – with 40 points having been the threshold for survival just once in the past 16 years.

So how many points will Slaven Bilic’s side actually have to accumulate if they are to avoid an instant return to the Championship?

A quick glance at Premier League campaigns over the last two decades suggests 36 normally gets the job done.

In 2010/11, Blues went down with 39.

Newcastle were relegated in 2015/16 with 37.

But those two seasons are anomalies, with teams who have acquired 36 points normally having done enough to just get themselves over the line.

It can vary, of course. And we all know, this is an unprecedented campaign.

But 36 points is a fair target for Albion to aim for – with teams who hit that mark having a 69 per cent chance of staying up.

That figure then jumps to a whopping 85 per cent if a side manages just one point more and hits a total of 37.

There are also some other stats to suggest recent history is on the Baggies’ side.

Over the last three years, six of the nine teams who have been promoted to the Premier League have survived their first season – that’s 66 per cent.

Some of those sides have done it in style, with rivals Wolves finishing seventh in their first campaign back in the top tier.

Sheffield United, meanwhile, finished a hugely impressive ninth last term. A lot of the teams that have survived have had one thing in common – and that’s that they haven’t undergone radical overhauls in personnel.

Having a team of players who know each other’s strengths and weaknesses – like Wolves and Sheffield United – is a real plus.

And that is maybe why Bilic was so keen to keep together the team he built last season – with Grady Diangana, Matheus Pereira, Callum Robinson and Filip Krovinovic all returning following their successful loans.

Albion, so far, have amassed three points from their first eight games.

The vast majority of supporters will feel they should have more – with two dropped thanks to the late draw with Chelsea and one slipping through the hands because of the late defeat to Tottenham.

But it means they need to achieve 33 points from their remaining 30 games for the odds of survival to be in their favour.

It could be 10 wins and three draws. It could be eight wins and nine draws. It could even be six wins and 15 draws.

There are plenty of ways to do it – with the vast majority of teams who finish the season sitting 17th in the table – one place above the drop zone – losing half of their matches.

It sounds very simple – but getting to that seven/eight-game winning mark as soon possible is the key to survival.

Albion have the ability to do it. But the quicker they get that first win, followed by a second, the better.