Supercomputer reveals Aston Villa Champions League boost after Bournemouth win
Villa’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League more than doubled over the weekend, statisticians claim.
Saturday’s 1-0 win at Bournemouth, coupled with results elsewhere for their rivals, saw their probability of finishing in the Premier League’s top-five increase from 15 to 38 per cent.
That is according to the Opta supercomputer, which crunches the numbers to predict the likely outcome of the race.
Villa’s victory lifted them up to sixth in the table, above Nottingham Forest who were held to a 2-2 draw at home by Leicester City.
It means Unai Emery’s team are guaranteed to claim a place in the Europa League at worst if they win their remaining two matches, at home to Tottenham and then away to Manchester United on the final day of the season.
Winning both games would also give them the best chance of leapfrogging one of the teams still above them in the table.
Villa are level on points with fifth-placed Chelsea but with a significantly worse goal difference. The west London club host Manchester United on Friday night, before visiting Nottingham Forest on the final day. Opta currently rate their chances of finishing in the top-five at 56 per cent.
Manchester City are two places and two points ahead of Villa but have a top-five probability of nearly 93 per cent with matches at home to Bournemouth and away to Fulham remaining.
Third-placed Newcastle are three points ahead of Emery’s team and with a superior goal difference need to win just one of their final two games, away at Arsenal and at home to Everton, to make them uncatchable.
Opta rates the Magpies’ chances of finishing in the top-five at 95 per cent while Arsenal, who sit second in the table, need only a point to secure their Champions League return at a probability of 99.9 per cent.
Villa have won eight of their last 10 league matches to top the form table for that period alongside Newcastle, with Saturday’s win guaranteeing some form of European football for the third straight season.
Tottenham and Manchester United, by contrast, are two of the worst performing teams and sit 17th and 16th in the league respectively. The pair will contest the Europa League final in Bilbao between their meetings with Villa.
Next season will be Emery’s 18th straight managing in European competition.
The boss said: “We got Europe and I appreciate to play in Europe. How we can develop playing in the Premier League and in Europe is fantastic.
“The club and the owners, and everyone at Bodymoor, everyone knows how we can increase our process and get the objective.
“This is the challenge I have, to develop always our process and be demanding. And how we can compete better.”
