Supercomputer reveals what late Man City winner means for Aston Villa's Champions League hopes
Villa’s chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League were almost slashed in half by Tuesday’s late defeat at Manchester City, according to a supercomputer.
Matheus Nunes’ winner in the fourth minute of stoppage time left Unai Emery’s team sitting seventh in the Premier League table, now four points behind the third-placed hosts with four matches left to play.
The gap to fifth-placed Newcastle, who currently occupy the final Champions League spot, is only two points but the Magpies have a game in hand and can extend the advantage when they host Ipswich Town on Saturday. Chelsea, above Villa on goal difference having played a game fewer, are also in action this weekend, at home to Everton.
Villa were already classed as outsiders in the race despite winning five straight matches heading into Tuesday night.
According to the Opta Supercomputer, their chances of finishing in the top-five stood at just 31.3 per cent before kick-off. Yet that is now down to 16.5 per cent after Nunes’ late goal. The win for Pep Guardiola’s team saw their chances of the top-five shoot up to 95 per cent, from 84.7 per cent prior to kick-off.
Such numbers are unlikely to faze Emery, however, who insisted his team remain firmly in the race.
Villa’s final four Premier League matches see them host Fulham and Tottenham, while travelling away to Bournemouth and Manchester United, the latter on the final day of the season.
“Tonight we lost, but there are still points to play,” said Emery. “We will get chances to get in the Champions League.
“When we started at West Ham and then carried on from there, it is a consequence of how we are. We are well, but we lost points during the process. I am happy how we are reacting and how every player is facing the moment we are in.”
This is the third straight season Villa have been in a race for Europe and they were successful in the previous two, clinching a Conference League spot on the final day in 2023 before finishing fourth to reach the Champions League 12 months ago.
