Will parting shot be fatal for our Union?

As an Islamic nutter was murdering people in London, one of the world’s most successful terrorists was being buried with honour, praise and comparisons with Nelson Mandela.

The loathsome Martin McGuinness – a man who ordered numerous murders, beatings and maimings in the name of a united Ireland – proved that terrorists can win.

Some apologists say he only accepted the peace process because the IRA lost the war. But if they did lose the war, the certainly won the peace.

Lauded and idolised by the likes of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, McGuinness went to his corner of Hell safe in the knowledge he had thrown another cluster bomb into Ulster’s political machine.

His last act before dying was to bring down the Stormont Government in some manufactured row over dodgy fuel payments for empty warehouses.

The renewable heating subsidy certainly wasted about £400 million and Arlene Foster, the Minister responsible and now supposedly Northern Ireland’s First Minister, should accept responsibility.

The fact is, though, that the scandal is not confined to the Province. I know of one business where they have to keep the windows wide open half the year because the wood-burning subsidy system means the more fuel they consume, the more money they get from the Government.

This is not just a problem for Northern Ireland but killer McGuinness managed to turn it into the biggest constitutional crisis in the Province since ‘peace’ broke out when Tony Blair surrendered to the IRA.

The upshot is that Northern Ireland no longer has a Government and its power-sharing agreement is in tatters, despite an election which might have given the various parties a chance to repair the damage.

Instead, the position has deteriorated. The Democratic Unionists only survived as the largest party in the 90-member assembly by one seat with Sinn Fein – the political wing of the IRA – gaining four.

As a result, the negotiations are not confined to whether Arlene Foster should remain First Minister. The DUP and Sinn Fein have suddenly found a whole lot of other issues to fall out about.

After three weeks of supposedly trying to come to a deal, with both sides digging their heels in, there is no prospect of agreement.

The Unionists are, not unreasonably, sick of investigations into killings during Ulster’s civil war by the army rather than the paramilitaries.

Meanwhile Michelle O'Neill, Sinn Fein’s replacement for Mr McGuinness, whose family has a history of IRA involvement, wants official status for Irish Gaelic, a Bill of Rights and more inquests into deaths during the ‘troubles’.

Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire has ruled out another election – presumably on the basis it would deliver the same result and fail to break the deadlock – so, unless there’s an 11th hour agreement, it’s direct rule for Northern Ireland once more.

At the same time, Northern Ireland is trying to get to grips with Brexit. The Province voted 56 per cent to remain in the EU and one of the greatest concerns is the question of the border with the Irish Republic.

There is free movement across the border between the North and the Republic – one of the benefits of the Good Friday peace process. After Brexit, there’s a risk there would have to be customs and passport checks on every route between the two countries.

Britain says there will be no return to a ‘hard border’ with checkpoints and closed roads but, unless the Republic takes on responsibility for vetting potential UK migrants, it’s hard to see how that will work.

The obvious solution would be for the whole island to remain in the EU. That would require a united Ireland and, as Sinn Fein gathers support, the chances of a referendum on the issue loom larger. And, for practical as well as historic and religious reasons, it’s a referendum the Republicans could win.

It is hard to imagine die-hard Unionists taking that lying down. But the Catholic population of Northern Ireland – generally in favour of reunification – is poised to overhaul unionist Protestants within a decade, so the long-term fate of the Province could easily be outside the United Kingdom.

McGuinness’s legacy is not peace in Northern Ireland. In reality, he has given the republican cause a huge boost by bringing down the power-sharing Government and plunging the Province into political chaos again.

For those of us on this side of the Irish Sea, this might not matter. The fate of Ulster is generally of far less concern than the fate of Scotland within our tattered Union.

Deals may be done; Brexit’s issues may be resolved; peace and good-will may prevail in Northern Ireland.

But Martin McGuinness’s legacy may prove to be the final triumph of the cause for which he spilled so much of other people’s blood.