Where I expect 'Portillo Moments' to happen on general election night

Iain Duncan Smith is the one most likely to fall, in Chingford and Woodford Green. The former Tory leader’s majority has been eroded over time as voters in his constituency have become younger and more diverse. Presently, he has a majority of just over 1,000, though a split between former Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen and her successor means Duncan Smith may just survive.

Grant Shapps seems to have done just about every job other than PM, and he seems to have supported the many PM’s who’ve been through Downing Street’s revolving door. His majority is around 11,000, which in normal circumstances would be considered healthy and defendable. These are not normal circumstances, however, and the veteran Cabinet minister will be eyeing the Welwyn Hatfield count nervously.

Liam Fox has an even bigger majority of more than 17,000 in North Somerset. The polls say even that might not be enough to save him from defeat, as he faces being swept away by Labour’s tide.

Transport Secretary Mark Harper finds himself in a similar position, defending a majority of over 15,000 in the Forest of Dean seat. It was held by Labour under Tony Blair’s leadership and may switch back again.

The most likely defeat is faced by Alex Chalk, in Cheltenham, where his majority of less than a thousand is likely to be too little to save the moderate Justice Secretary from defeat at the hands of the Lib Dems.

Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden should both be safe in seats that have majorities around 20,000-21,000. Keegan, however, is a key target of the Lib Dems and a huge swing is forecast, while Holden may be challenged by Reform and has proved an unpopular choice after leaving the North East and parachuting himself into a seat that is supposedly safe.

There are other big beasts facing new careers. Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary, may lose his 17,000-plus majority to the Labour surge, while Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader who wants to be the next Conservative leader, is far from safe in Portsmouth North, despite her majority of more than 15,000.

Closer to home, Sir Gavin Williamson faces a tussle with Labour in the new seat of Stone, Great Wyrley, and Penkridge. The new Staffordshire seat ought to be his for the taking because it consists of areas previously held by Tories. Yet, the controversial former chief whip, defence secretary, and education secretary is far from safe.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt could become the biggest name to fall, as he seeks success in the new seat of Godalming and Ash. If he loses to the Lib Dems, as forecast, he’d go down in history as being the first Chancellor to be unseated. The Lib Dems are fighting hard across Surrey and believe they can snatch victory.

Even former PM Liz Truss, with a majority of 26,000, and Foreign Secretary James Cleverely, with a majority of 24,000, are not entirely safe. If the Tories have the meltdown that the polls predict, falling to fewer than 100 seats, both could find themselves ejected from the House of Commons.

For Rishi Sunak, the election promises to be a chastening moment. He’s been driven by success at all costs, and now seems likely to endure the biggest defeat in the Tory party’s history.

Rishi insists his party can still win, though Sir Keir Starmer’s strategy of sitting on the fence and becoming the leader of the nation’s new, centre-right Labour Party, will almost certainly pay off.

That will leave the Tory Party facing further division as its remaining MPs squabble over whether to move towards the centre, to face down Labour, or further to the right, to tackle Nigel Farage’s Reform. Farage enjoyed a bounce when he decided to stand, though the bad apples in his party have been easily unearthed by reporters. Farage, of course, insists that’s a conspiracy that’s nothing to do with him.

Tomorrow, voters will be able to decide, as they make their decisions at the ballot box.