What do the election results mean

Some commentators have described the results as a 'political earthquake', saying the results meant that Nigel Farage's hopes of becoming Prime Minister were 'no longer a pipe dream'. 

Certainly, there is little doubt that the rumbustious Reform leader as the undisputed winner in these latest elections, withhis party taking its first three major councils, two regional mayoralties, and the previously rock-solid Labour seat at Runcorn and Helsby, and he could certainly be forgiven for swapping his trademark pint of bitter for a flute of champagne.

But does it really mean he is on course to be Prime Minister, less than a year since Sir Keir Starmer swept into office with a landslide majority?

It's certainly possible, and you can't blame Reform supporters for getting excited. But four years away from the next General Election, it is probably premature to write off the two main established parties.

Mr Farage will doubtless remember the infamous words of former Liberal leader David Steel, who in 1981 told his MPs "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government." At the time, his party had struck an alliance with the Social Democratic Party, a centre-left group which broke away from the Labour Party, and which led the opinion polls for much of 1981 and 82. Many commentators talked about a watershed moment, with the old duopoly being shattered by the insurgent 'third force in British politics'. 

While the Alliance certainly made an impression, its main effect was probably to split the left-leaning vote, helping Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives win the 1983 General Election by a landslide.

More recently, the UK Independence Party, under Nigel Farage's leadership, were the big winners in the 2013 local elections - two years before David Cameron was returned to office. And it was his Brexit Party - the predecessor of Reform - which trounced the Tories into fifth place in the 2019 European elections - six months-and-a-half months before Boris Johnson secured a general-election landslide.

Of the West Midlands two new administrations, it will be the Liberal Democrat leadership in Shropshire which faces the more formidable task. Covering a vast geographical area, with a sparse, ageing population with income levels well below both the national and regional average, the new administration will face many of the same problems that have troubled its predecessors. The council's finances have suffered more than most from the soaring cost of adult social care, and there is little sign of respite any time soon. Similarly, the Liberal Democrats, so often keen to position themselves as the champions of the green belt, now find themselves responsible for meeting the Government's housing targets. The honeymoon could indeed prove short.

For Nigel Farage, the difficulty will come in turning what is largely seen as a protest party into a government-in-waiting, without losing the anti-establishment appeal which has helped it win so many votes. The people of Staffordshire may well give it the benefit of the doubt in the short term, and it is certainly a chance for Reform to demonstrate that it is a credible alternative to the old order. The problem will be, as Sir Keir Starmer has discovered to his cost, that when you are elected on a platform of delivering change, you need to deliver it very fast - otherwise people will quickly conclude that 'you are the same as the others'.

The only comfort for Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch is that with an election potentially four years away, time is on their side. The Tory leader has chosen to take the 'hair and tortoise' approach to opposition: after being seen at the 'Mrs Angry' of the last government, she has kept a surprisingly low profile, insisting that she will take her time to rebuild the party, and review its policies. She will argue that was precisely the strategy  that Sir Keir adopted when he became Labour leader in 2020, and who himself faced similar criticism four years ago, when his party lost the Hartlepool by-election. The immediate question is whether her party will give her the time - and this week's results will hardly do much to increase their patience. 

Nigel Farage has done what Nigel Farage does, and has shaken up the political kaleidoscope. But it will probably be a couple of years before we can accurately predict where the different pieces will land.