Business confidence among Black Country firms fell in third quarter – new survey

The latest figures from the first local survey to be conducted since the General Election victory for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party in July showed 60 per cent of Black Country businesses are predicting an improvement in turnover over the next 12 months, well above the latest national survey result but down from 71 per cent in Quarter 2.

The new data, based on surveys completed by local businesses between August 19 and September 12, also showed 50 per cent believed profitability will improve over the next 12 months, compared with 62 per cent three months earlier.

The Black Country Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) for Quarter 3, published today, gives an up-to-date picture of the performance of the Black Country business community amid speculation about the Government’s first Budget, due on October 30.

The results, announced at the Chamber's Quarterly Economic Survey Data Reveal event at the Bescot Stadium in Walsall, showed taxation is now the top concern for firms across all sectors in the region, with 31% of businesses citing it as their biggest worry.

Despite the drop in confidence, the Black Country survey showed companies are more positive than in Quarter 3 of last year, when 55 per cent believed turnover would improve over the next 12 months and 45 per cent believed profitability would improve over the next 12 months.

Black Country business confidence levels have been tracked by the QES throughout 2024 as being above national levels recorded in the quarterly British Chambers of Commerce survey and remain higher than the results of the most recent UK-wide poll.

All the survey results were shared with Chamber members during a briefing, which included a networking session followed by a data presentation from Gemma Edwards, Black Country Chamber of Commerce policy and impact officer.

Gemma said: “With taxation now being businesses’ primary concern, it seems that many are feeling anxious about the upcoming Budget and the direction of economic policy. Fewer companies are looking to increase their investment plans.

“However, it is positive to see that the Black Country is still more confident than it was 12 months ago. Businesses here are more optimistic than British businesses overall, which highlights their resilience, with confidence having remained consistently high locally over the past 12 months.

“There is still optimism, including one in two businesses thinking profitability will improve in the next 12 months.”

Key Black Country findings included 31 per cent of firms reporting an increase in domestic sales, down from 42 per cent in the previous quarter, while 40 per cent reported no change and 18 per cent reported a decrease, up from 9 per cent in Quarter 2.

Seven per cent of firms reported an increase in overseas sales, down from 9 per cent in Quarter 2, while 13 per cent reported no change and 12 per cent reported a decrease.

In addition, 57 per cent of Black Country firms attempted to recruit over the past quarter, down from 62 per cent in Quarter 2.

And 62 per cent experienced recruitment difficulties, up from 60 per cent in Quarter 2.

Black Country Chamber of Commerce CEO Sarah Moorhouse said: “The first QES survey since the General Election has provided the Chamber with important data on the performance, concerns and views of businesses as we prepare for the Budget and plan for 2025.

“The survey results are always closely watched by both HM Treasury and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, so they help to inform decisions that impact upon interest rates and business policy.

“Thank you to everyone who completed our latest questionnaire. We strongly encourage all businesses, whether Chamber members or not, to complete our survey every quarter as the information produced is invaluable.”

The survey event included a presentation by guest speaker Anthony Burns from Paycare about how companies can use staff benefits to help recruit and retain employees, why businesses find value in offering good benefits and what employees value the most from their employer.

Representatives from local businesses also took part in a panel discussion on their staff benefits and recruitment and retention processes.